Palestinian Elections



By Daoud Kuttab



An unusual calm has prevailed in the occupied territories with the start of

the election campaign. Posters of all colors sizes and shapes are filling

Palestinian streets. In addition to the individual candidates the most

obvious posters are those featuring individuals who are unable to be

present in election rallies.  The most obvious are the posters showing the

slain leaders of Hamas  Ahmad Yasin and Abdel Azziz Rantisi as well as the

late Yaser Arafat. But others appearing in huge posters include a number of

candidates who are behind bars, like Marwan Barghouti (Fatah), Hassan

Yousef (Hamas) and Ahmad Saadat (PFLP held in Jericho). One poster is a

2004 photo of Yaser Arafat holding a poster calling for the release of

Barghouti.



While these posters have been plastered in many interesting areas,

travelers on the Jerusalem Ramallah road (near Al Ram) have seen them in

interesting areas. The faces of Third Party candidates former PA minister

of Finance Salam Faida and former Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi

among many many others are now gracing the separation Wall. The high cement

barrier has proven a godsent to candidate supporters searching for an easy

backdrop to plaster their election campaign literature. As the traveler

moves closer to the newly built Qalandia terminal, a few posters show up

inside the terminal. Some brave supporters of independent candidate Jamil

Tarifi succeded in getting three of his poster inside the terminal. Once

out of the crowded terminal Palestinian travelers can’t avoid two huge

billboards of Fatah candidate Qadora Fares.



The airwaves are no less crowded. Palestine television has organized along

with the Dubai based Al Arrabyeh a nightly window allowing the public to

get to know each of the 11 lists. The Maan Network of local  private radio

stations has been contracted to broadcast election spots for most of the

candidates. In the last week of the elections each of the ten member

stations will air a Hamas spot every 15 minutes and a Fatah spot every 30

minutes almost around the clock. The cost of these spots is not so much

about $25 a spot. The Arrabiyeh satellite on the other hand charges nearly

$5,000 per spot and while a few candidates or lists can afford many of

these spots international organizations have paid for general get out the

vote spots that are focusing on getting city people to participate.

Pollsters show that a high turnout especially in urban areas will favor

national centrists candidates while a low turnout will favor hard line

groups who have core loyal supporters.



Speculations about the winners and losers are plenty. The possibility of

the success of the Islamic movement has caused panic in some circles and

not much worry in others. Talk about social issues and an Islamic state are

discounted as most agree that these are premature issues. The one issue of

importance is how the results will affect negotiations. Various issues are

discussed. That the negotiations in the past and the future have been

between Israel and the PLO. So the Palestinian elections for the

legislative council will not directly affect these elections. The economic

future of the Palestinian territories is much more seen as the key issues.

Again speculations vary. Some say that the threats are empty threats.

Others feel that the majority of western support can go directly to the

Palestinian people through various instruments. For its part Hamas leaders

are trying to lay aside worries saying that they have not decided that they

would want to join the government even if they do well in the elections.



The beginning of the election season has had a number of side effects. The

spat of kidnappings in Gaza has suddenly come to a stop as Fatah and its

supporters seems to have belatedly understood the dangers and they have

decided to put aside internal difference in order to focus on the threat of

losing power. One visiting US official speculated to me that Fatah’s

numbers could not get any worse. His idea is that if you simply took the

number of all those on the payroll or benefiting from Fatah you would get

the numbers that polls are giving them. Any attempt to improve their

policies can produce better results for them. Fatah seems to have

understood this and their message is a mix of apologizing for past mistakes

and request to the public to give them another chance.



In most cases like the one we are seeing a ruling corrupt power is easily

swept out of power to allow the opposition to give it a try. With

Palestinians facing such a grave existential issue of negotiating for the

permanent status of Palestine, many genuine Palestinian supporters are

privately  hoping that the ruling party is taught a lesson at the polls but

without losing all power. Such a scenario plays into the hands of

independent and leftwing groups who look like they will be the kingmakers

in the upcoming years.

An open letter to Ehud Olmert

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daoud kuttab, THE JERUSALEM POST Jan. 11, 2006

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Dear Mr. Olmert – I am writing you in the hope that you will take time from your busy schedule as Israel’s acting prime minister to hear one Palestinian’s hopes.



Even though your ascension to the position of prime minister came in an awkward way because of Ariel Sharon’s stroke, I believe that you have an opportunity to be part of a historic reconciliation. While I am sure you will insist that you are going to follow in the political legacy of Sharon, you have some important advantages with Palestinians that Sharon did not have.



The first advantage is that you’re not burdened with Ariel Sharon’s negative image among Palestinians and Arabs. Having been the mayor of Jerusalem for 10 years, you know the situation of Palestinians close up.



I believe that the chances for a political breakthrough in our region have never been better. On the Israeli side, your faith in the political process was demonstrated recently when you and Sharon decided unilaterally to go against your own ideology and take on the powerful settler movement.



The two of you also went against conventional thinking by breaking away from your Likud Party, greatly weakening the ideological stranglehold that Likud’s far-right central committee held on Israeli politics.



The realization that withdrawal from populated areas, and thus an end to holding another people under permanent occupation, was necessary to preserve the Jewish nature of Israel clearly brought the two of you to the center of Israeli thinking.



On a much smaller scale, significant change has been taking place on the Palestinian side as well. While I believe that the occupation, rather than the reaction to it, is the main cause of our conflict, the unilateral tahdia ("declared calm") decision by Palestinian militant groups has reduced anti-Israeli attacks mightily, which shows that Palestinians also realize the limits of their military actions.



The decision by Hamas to join the political process by participating in the upcoming legislative elections shows that even this hardline Islamic movement has concluded that our conflict needs to be addressed by political rather than military means.



WHILE I understand that you are an Israeli patriot, I believe that much can be done to reduce the tensions between our two peoples, eventually leading to genuine reconciliation and peace. As a start, priority must be given to face-to-face negotiations.

Sharon and you might have felt that unilateral action was needed in Gaza, but the withdrawal from Gaza could have produced many more benefits for both sides had it been done bilaterally.



Direct talks should concentrate on two parallel tracks. They should attempt to produce an immediate cessation of violence from both sides while simultaneously focusing on a permanent settlement of our conflict.



Contrary to territorial withdrawal, cessation of violence can be achieved only bilaterally. Both sides should commit to an end to assassinations, shelling, bombings, and any other form of attacks on the other side’s military targets and citizens. To be effective, such a cease-fire must contain a monitoring mechanism.



Neutral foreign observers should be asked to be deployed in major hot spots and be asked to identify anyone on either side who violates any of the agreement’s clauses.



Alongside this effort, vigorous negotiations on a permanent settlement should start immediately. Historically, cease-fires have survived only when they are backed by talks that both parties believe are genuine and serious.



At the same time, the atmosphere among Palestinians and their attitude toward Israel must be improved, so that we can have a political environment that supports negotiations. Improving the daily conditions of life, particularly increasing Palestinians’ freedom of travel both between Gaza and the West Bank and within the West Bank, will also go a long way in helping to create a positive atmosphere.



I truly wish you success in your responsibilities as acting prime minister and acting head of Kadima. Your efforts to move forward toward resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would generate significant improvement in the political atmosphere in the entire Middle East.



But, whatever you do in the next few months to win the forthcoming parliamentary elections, please remember that the support that Kadima has received from the Israeli public derives precisely from the fact that it has taken a moderate centrist position. So please don’t allow yourself to be drawn into pandering to Israel’s radicals and hawks. The support that you and your colleagues will get from Israelis and Arabs will depend on the resolve that you show in making serious progress in the peace process.



That process, now as before, must culminate in an independent and democratic Palestine alongside a safe and secure Israel.



The writer is the director of the Institute of Modern Media at Al Quds University in Ramallah. www.project-syndicate.org



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 2006-the year of hope?

By DAOUD KUTTAB

RAMALLAH, West Bank, Jan. 8 (UPI) — Political changes in Palestine and Israel, as well as changes in attitudes in both societies and in the international community, provide a rare glimmer of hope that important changes on the ground are a serious possibility.

Radical ideologies and individuals are being sidelined in favour of those representing the political centre, both in Israel and in Palestine. Israel’s hard-line Likud party now finds itself on the political fringe, after the exit of Ariel Sharon and several of his colleagues to escape the pressures of the Likud’s far-right central committee and form the centrist party Kadima. The ideology of Kadima has been left purposely vague in order to attract the largest numbers of voters. Its members include such ideologically opposed individuals as the hawkish defence minister Shaul Mofaz and the dovish Shimon Peres. Despite the health status of Israel’s long time leader Ariel Sharon, recent opinion polls suggest that the majority of Israelis support a centrist party. In fact an argument can be made that Sharon has done what was necessary in breaking up the stranglehold of the settlers and the central committee of the Likud on Israeli politics.

Over in the Palestinian camp, similar changes are taking place. The carpet is being pulled out from under most of the central committee of Fatah, with jailed Palestinian intifada leader Marwan Barghouti and his young shabab taking over from the old guard. While Mahmoud Abbas is still the elected president of Palestine and the leader of the Fatah movement, new leaders are forcing their way onto the political scene. The January 25th elections will certainly usher in new blood. It is expected that less than a handful of the existing members of the Palestinian Legislative Council will remain in parliament after the long-awaited elections.

It is not clear what tangible changes the new blood in the Palestinian leadership will bring. A statement from his Israeli jail cell gives a hint as to the priorities of the new leadership. Writing from behind bars, Marwan Barghouti apologized for the corruption that members of his party, Fatah, have committed in the past, and vowed that his era will witness a clean administration of the affairs of the Palestinian Authority.

The talk about a corruption-free administration comes from electoral pressure caused by the entry of the Islamic group Hamas in the elections. The impressive wins that Hamas has had in many Palestinian cities is credited to the fact that they have fielded or supported clean candidates who are expected to do a good job in serving their populations.

While the success of Hamas has worried many foreign countries, Palestinians don’t expect the Islamic group to win anything near a majority of the 134 seats of the second Palestinian Legislative Council. Palestinians differentiate between the domestic vote, which has to do with day to day services and national elections that will designate representatives for talks with Israelis and with the international community.

But regardless of how many seats Hamas will win and whether it will participate in the post election government, the Islamic movement has already hinted about its willingness to modify its charter and its political platform. The participation of Hamas in the government would have an even more important result, by requiring the militant movement to put aside its concentration on military options and it would provide it with the opportunity to channel its energies into the political arena.

On the international front, the earlier neoconservative ideological bend of the Bush administration seems to have been replaced by a more pragmatic policy aimed at putting out the fires that have been raging in the Middle East. However, this apparent pragmatism, seen mostly in Iraq where the U.S. has been encouraging Sunnis to participate in the political process, doesn’t seem to be as important to the US in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The recent visit of Condoleezza Rice to Jerusalem that resulted in the opening of the Rafah crossing will require a lot more follow-up.

If the current moves to the political centre and the pragmatic attitudes of all parties continue and intensify, 2006 has the potential of being a breakthrough year. This will require compromises that the parties have not shown willingness to make in the past. But political changes at the top of the political pyramids in Israel and Palestine promise to correct the idiosyncrasies that have produced policies and actions that do not reflect the aspirations of Palestinians and Israelis.

With radical ideologies being discarded in return for pragmatic policies, one hopes that 2006 will not only witness a considerable reduction in violence but will also see some genuine political breakthroughs that can put the region on the right track after years of turmoil and failed attempts at a historic reconciliation, peace and tranquillity.

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(Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist and the director of the Institute of Modern Media at Al Quds University in Ramallah. This report has been made available to UPI by Common Ground News Service.)