Jan 20 2006
Election Fever
Palestinian Elections
By Daoud Kuttab
An unusual calm has prevailed in the occupied territories with the start of
the election campaign. Posters of all colors sizes and shapes are filling
Palestinian streets. In addition to the individual candidates the most
obvious posters are those featuring individuals who are unable to be
present in election rallies. The most obvious are the posters showing the
slain leaders of Hamas Ahmad Yasin and Abdel Azziz Rantisi as well as the
late Yaser Arafat. But others appearing in huge posters include a number of
candidates who are behind bars, like Marwan Barghouti (Fatah), Hassan
Yousef (Hamas) and Ahmad Saadat (PFLP held in Jericho). One poster is a
2004 photo of Yaser Arafat holding a poster calling for the release of
Barghouti.
While these posters have been plastered in many interesting areas,
travelers on the Jerusalem Ramallah road (near Al Ram) have seen them in
interesting areas. The faces of Third Party candidates former PA minister
of Finance Salam Faida and former Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi
among many many others are now gracing the separation Wall. The high cement
barrier has proven a godsent to candidate supporters searching for an easy
backdrop to plaster their election campaign literature. As the traveler
moves closer to the newly built Qalandia terminal, a few posters show up
inside the terminal. Some brave supporters of independent candidate Jamil
Tarifi succeded in getting three of his poster inside the terminal. Once
out of the crowded terminal Palestinian travelers can’t avoid two huge
billboards of Fatah candidate Qadora Fares.
The airwaves are no less crowded. Palestine television has organized along
with the Dubai based Al Arrabyeh a nightly window allowing the public to
get to know each of the 11 lists. The Maan Network of local private radio
stations has been contracted to broadcast election spots for most of the
candidates. In the last week of the elections each of the ten member
stations will air a Hamas spot every 15 minutes and a Fatah spot every 30
minutes almost around the clock. The cost of these spots is not so much
about $25 a spot. The Arrabiyeh satellite on the other hand charges nearly
$5,000 per spot and while a few candidates or lists can afford many of
these spots international organizations have paid for general get out the
vote spots that are focusing on getting city people to participate.
Pollsters show that a high turnout especially in urban areas will favor
national centrists candidates while a low turnout will favor hard line
groups who have core loyal supporters.
Speculations about the winners and losers are plenty. The possibility of
the success of the Islamic movement has caused panic in some circles and
not much worry in others. Talk about social issues and an Islamic state are
discounted as most agree that these are premature issues. The one issue of
importance is how the results will affect negotiations. Various issues are
discussed. That the negotiations in the past and the future have been
between Israel and the PLO. So the Palestinian elections for the
legislative council will not directly affect these elections. The economic
future of the Palestinian territories is much more seen as the key issues.
Again speculations vary. Some say that the threats are empty threats.
Others feel that the majority of western support can go directly to the
Palestinian people through various instruments. For its part Hamas leaders
are trying to lay aside worries saying that they have not decided that they
would want to join the government even if they do well in the elections.
The beginning of the election season has had a number of side effects. The
spat of kidnappings in Gaza has suddenly come to a stop as Fatah and its
supporters seems to have belatedly understood the dangers and they have
decided to put aside internal difference in order to focus on the threat of
losing power. One visiting US official speculated to me that Fatah’s
numbers could not get any worse. His idea is that if you simply took the
number of all those on the payroll or benefiting from Fatah you would get
the numbers that polls are giving them. Any attempt to improve their
policies can produce better results for them. Fatah seems to have
understood this and their message is a mix of apologizing for past mistakes
and request to the public to give them another chance.
In most cases like the one we are seeing a ruling corrupt power is easily
swept out of power to allow the opposition to give it a try. With
Palestinians facing such a grave existential issue of negotiating for the
permanent status of Palestine, many genuine Palestinian supporters are
privately hoping that the ruling party is taught a lesson at the polls but
without losing all power. Such a scenario plays into the hands of
independent and leftwing groups who look like they will be the kingmakers
in the upcoming years.